| Student: | D. Huang |
|---|---|
| Timeline: | September 2024 - 15 September 2028 |
The growth of average individual incomes and population has led to a global increase in average per capita and total food consumption (Godfray et al. 2018). Additionally, food consumption, especially in developing countries, is forecasted to increase further. Moreover, as people become wealthier, their diets change from being largely based on starchy staples to diets that incorporate increasing amounts of refined grains, fruit, vegetables, meat, and dairy (Kastner et al. 2012; FAO et al. 2024). Such increases will pose more pressure on agricultural production as an animal protein-based diet needs higher inputs including land and water (Lucas et al. 2023).
International food trade profoundly influences land use patterns both locally and globally (Escobar et al. 2020; Post et al. 2025; zu Ermgassen et al. 2020). The demand for agricultural commodities drives land use changes, often leading to deforestation, biodiversity loss, and changes in agricultural practices in exporting countries (Liu et al. 2019). The global trade network has increased access to international markets, promoting local economy and employment (Laroche et al. 2020; Mazzetto et al. 2023). However, this global intercoupling also amplifies environmental and social trade-offs, such as land competition, and smallholder livelihoods, as countries prioritize export-driven agriculture over local subsistence needs (Levers et al. 2021).
Climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production, constituting a threat to global food security (Janssens et al. 2020; Chemura et al. 2022). In addition, climate change will also pose significant challenges to regions that depend on food trade for food supply as extreme weather will cause disruptions in the food trade network (Janssens et al. 2020). Accordingly, effective mitigation strategies, such as adopting climate-smart agricultural practices and fostering resilient supply chain networks, are essential to address these cascading risks and protect food security globally.
Based on these, the goal of this research is to investigate the role of climate change in influencing food flow and land use from the perspective of dietary change. Specifically, we will evaluate the degree of subnational food flows localization and simulate the impact of climate change on food flows within China. Then we will identify global climate-suitable avocado areas and optimize its spatial distribution and analyze the spatial tradeoffs among avocado production, conservation, and smallholder livelihoods.
Meet the team
