The impact of governance measures and behavioural assumptions on food security: Lessons from agent-based modelling
Aleid Teeuwen is a PhD student in the Department of Natural Resources. (Co)promotors are prof.dr. A.D. Nelson and dr. Y. Dou from the Faculty of ITC and prof.dr. M.A. Meyer from the Anhalt University of Applied Sciences.
Food security remains a pressing global challenge, with millions of people lacking consistent access to sufficient, nutritious food. Governance measures, such as financial incentives, regulations, and information campaigns, play a crucial role in shaping food systems and influencing food security outcomes. However, their effectiveness depends not only on economic and environmental factors but also on human behaviour and decision-making.
In this dissertation, I investigate the impact of governance interventions and behavioural assumptions on food security outcomes using agent-based modelling (ABM). The research follows four objectives: (1) systematically reviewing existing simulation studies on food security governance, (2) developing an agent-based model (3spire) that incorporates aspirations as a key driver of farmers' decision-making, (3) exploring how wealth differences influence aspiration dynamics and farm management strategies, and (4) assessing how different interpretations of aspiration adaptation theory (AAT) affect model outcomes related to poverty, food security, and land use.
The findings highlight the importance of capturing behavioural heterogeneity in food security simulations and demonstrate that different representations of aspirations can lead to significantly different policy implications. The thesis underscores the need for transparent communication of model assumptions and advocates for incorporating behavioural insights into governance strategies for sustainable and equitable food system transformation.
